Data sources used in this report are quoted in the text, tables and figures. Sources and methodology are described below. The Norwegian Shipowners’ Association has worked in collaboration with BDO AS on the analysis. Shipbrokers and consultants Lorentzen & Stemoco have contributed with an external market analysis to this year’s report. It is clearly shown in the text where this material has been used.
Member survey on framework conditions and the shipping companies’ prospects
The Norwegian Shipowners’ Association conducted a survey of its members in the period from January 5 to January 15, 2021. Members were sent an electronic questionnaire to survey their expectations of developments in key economic figures, emerging markets, access to capital and competence, and political framework conditions. 93 out of 125 current member companies responded to the survey, giving a response rate of 74.4 per cent. The respondents in the survey are representative of the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association’s members, both in terms of fleet size and ship segment. The material therefore provides a sound basis for extrapolating from sample to population. Almost without exception, responses were provided by owners and senior management.
Calculation of shipping companies’ growth in turnover in 2020 and 2021
BDO AS has access to accounting data for Norwegian shipping companies’ turnover in 2019. In the survey, the shipping companies were asked to indicate turnover in 2019, estimated turnover for 2020, and expected percentage of growth in turnover for 2021. Since BDO AS does not have complete turnover figures for all shipping companies in 2020, these have been calculated as follows:
- The companies’ self-reported turnover in 2019 has been compared with information from official sources (such as audited turnover and the companies’ own annual reports, including consolidated accounts) for the same year. This in order to determine whether the self-reported turnover in the survey can be used as a basis for calculating the turnover of the total population of shipping companies in Norway.
- Self-reported turnover for 2020 has been adjusted for the proportion of total turnover in each of the four ship segments included in the data basis.
- Forecasts for 2021 have been calculated by multiplying the 2020 turnover of each member company by their own declared growth for 2021. The estimated turnover was then summed up for the four ship segments. Estimated turnover is also adjusted for the share of total turnover in each of the four segments included in the data basis.
Valuation of the world’s shipping fleet
Menon Economics has estimated the value of the world’s merchant fleet from 2001 to the present, divided into 14 ship segments and all the world’s countries. Selected segments have been merged, giving a total of ten segments presented in the report. Within each segment, the calculations are based on newbuilding prices, freight rates, age, number of ships, life expectancy, gross tonnage and deadweight tonnage. Fleet size data has primarily been obtained from IHS Fairplay, while valuation data was obtained from several sources, including Clarksons Platou, UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport, and Worldyards. In order to arrive at value estimates for 2021, volume data for 2020 was combined with price data for 2021. The model is regularly revised to enhance precision. Cruise ships have been removed from the fleet figures, and the historical figures have also been adjusted for this.
Norwegian-controlled foreign-going fleet – definitions and parameters
The Norwegian Shipowners’ Association maintains statistics on the Norwegian-controlled foreign-going fleet. The parameters for inclusion of ships in the Norwegian-controlled foreign-going fleet are based on the following principles:
- All ships registered in the Norwegian International Ship Register (NIS)
- Ships registered in the Norwegian Ordinary Ship Register (NOR) and engaged in foreign trade
- Ships sailing under foreign flag, owned by Norwegian-controlled shipping companies (stipulating 50 per cent Norwegian ownership or higher) and engaged in foreign trade